Who Could Win the Golden Lion? The Strongest Venice Film Festival Contenders So Far

Park Chan-wook leads the pack with No Other Choice, but the Golden Lion race at Venice 82 is far from over, with Netflix heavyweights and late-breaking premieres still in play.

The 82nd Venice Film Festival is at its midpoint, and a few films have already emerged as frontrunners in the race for the Golden Lion. While the lineup is still unfolding on the Lido, certain titles have generated enough critical buzz and audience chatter to feel like contenders. Yet Venice juries are famously unpredictable, often rewarding audacity over consensus, and this year’s jury led by Alexander Payne — joined by Cristian Mungiu and Mohammad Rasoulof among others — suggests the awards conversation is only beginning.

The loudest conversation has centered around Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice, which has been met with a rare wave of unanimity from critics and audiences alike. The South Korean director of Oldboy and The Handmaiden delivers a razor-sharp satire about a laid-off bureaucrat, played with tragicomic verve by Lee Byung-hun, who literally eliminates his competition to remain employable. The film has been hailed as both a timely allegory of economic despair and a triumph of style, cementing Park as a festival favorite. While nothing is guaranteed, it seems inevitable that No Other Choice will walk away with at least one major prize — whether for Best Film, Best Director, or Best Actor for Lee — making it the one to beat.

But Venice has long been a fertile proving ground for Netflix, which has two of its three films already unveiled. Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, starring George Clooney as a fading Hollywood star in crisis, has received mixed reviews, though Adam Sandler’s tender supporting turn as his manager has emerged as a standout. Critics have noted that Sandler provides the heart of the film, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the jury tip toward him for an acting award. Jay Kelly may not be Baumbach’s sharpest work, but Venice juries have a history of honoring unexpected performances, and Payne’s longstanding connection to Clooney only adds intrigue.

Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein has been more divisive. The lavish gothic production, anchored by Jacob Elordi’s emotionally raw take on the Creature, has ardent defenders and detractors. Some see it as a visually stunning exploration of love and identity; others feel the lush production design swallows its intimacy. Yet del Toro is a beloved figure on the Lido, having won the Golden Lion in 2017 for The Shape of Water. Venice has often embraced gothic spectacle, and Elordi’s performance in particular could still find traction with the jury.

Other international auteurs have made quieter but notable contributions. László Nemes’ Orphan, a postwar coming-of-age tale set in Budapest, has been praised for its craftsmanship but has failed to capture the zeitgeist. Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia, a satirical sci-fi starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons, landed early with strong reviews but may be overshadowed by his previous Venice triumph for Poor Things in 2023. Olivier Assayas’ The Wizard of the Kremlin, featuring Jude Law as Vladimir Putin, has stirred curiosity but not acclaim, its mixed reception making awards less likely. Meanwhile, Gianfranco Rosi’s Below the Clouds, a black-and-white documentary about life under Mount Vesuvius, could resonate with a jury willing to honor nonfiction cinema — Venice has been more open to documentaries than Cannes in recent years.

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Crucially, much of the competition has yet to arrive. Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine promises a bruising A24 sports drama with Dwayne Johnson in what could be a career-best turn. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite is generating anticipation as a tense Netflix thriller about a missile strike, and could prove to be a late-breaking powerhouse. Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother premieres tonight, and his quiet, minimalist style has found favor with juries before. Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee, a historical musical co-written with Brady Corbet, is also waiting in the wings.

Venice has always been an unpredictable launchpad for awards season. Just in the past decade, films like Roma, Joker, Poor Things, and The Shape of Water began their Oscar journeys here. This year, No Other Choice has the clear momentum, but Netflix’s star-driven titles, del Toro’s gothic spectacle, and a wave of still-to-come premieres could scramble the picture. If there’s one certainty, it’s that the Golden Lion will once again set the tone for the months of awards chatter to come.